Watch this space.
We are within a few years of an event horizon in industry.
Modern manufacturing, both light and heavy industry, have adapted to the stupidity that has come down from on high; the free market cannot be denied. No matter how hard the fedgov makes it on businesses, they will always find ways to turn some kind of profit, and so far, they mostly have.
But to do so, they have had to change. Some, knowing that a fixed number of products must still be manufactured, have turned to automation. others have decided to make fewer products at a greater margin with far fewer (Or no) employees, and some have decided to keep their existing employees but at a reduced rate or at a partial employment status.
But the industry can only get so lean. And it has come to that point, almost. At some point the regulations and laws will make it impossible for businesses of certain sizes to survive, and then things will change dramatically. People will turn to practices that are illegal in order to make a living, just as the oppression of communism drove commerce underground. We are very near to that tipping point; I see people doing riskier and riskier things to stay afloat. Do not confuse illegal with immoral; and do not assign moral values to legislators- in the main, they have none to impart.
American industry is prepared to do what it has to, to get through the coming shitstorm. And it will involve, in many cases, bending, skirting, or downright breaking the law. Are you ready? Can you break the law day in and day out without acting so guilty a cop notices immediately?
In ten years if you cannot you will be in trouble.
19 comments Og | Uncategorized
In the end, everyone in the Soviet Union was in the black market, including the officials who had duties to crush it. So what came after, organized crime controlled commerce, was the next logical step.
There but for the grace of god we will go.
The government has no soul. What really frosts me is the attitude we are seeing from government employees. They are NOT better than I or you.
Life is indeed interesting.
“We are within a few years of an event horizon in industry. ”
Very well put.
I fear that’s going to be true of the people at large, not just businessmen.
And given that – as Judge Harvey Silverglate put it – the average American already unknowingly commits “three felonies a day” due to the ongoing regulation and criminalization of absolutely everything – we may be at the point right now…
The finance/banking and legal industrial complex have already led the way. They already know it’s easier and far more profitable to do shady and risky and sketchy and nefarious business and for most of them there’s no penalty or retribution. And certainly little to no real regulation, apparently that’s only for those who aren’t too big to fail.
This is not to say they’re all bad actors out there but that old saying about how it’s more profitable to steal with a fountain pen than a gun has never been more true than it is now. I expect to see more of it rather than less. ‘Cause just like Willie Sutton’s famous quote, that’s where the (easy) money is.
There’s probably some more Madoffs out there too.
Jenny
Great minds think alike. I was just reading about “The Regulation Singularity” a few days ago.
http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2014/03/the-regulation-singularity.html
Can I break the law day in and day out without acting guilty?
I drive every day. So Yes.
You got it Jn.
“There’s probably some more Madoffs out there too” Sure. As long as there are democrats, a percentage of them will be Madoffs. The philosophy breeds them at that level. You just don’t hear about that for the same reason the media never publicized Roosevelt’s polio- you hoi polloi are too stupid to know the truth so we keep it from you because we know better.
No, this is not about the super rich or banking or anything of the sort- this is about the guy who has taken to burning walnut sawdust in his company’s boilers because the cost of disposing of it (The EPA considers it an irritant and toxic) is more than the profits from his business- the guy who burns his waste oil in the same way, the company who can’t afford the upkeep on their equipment because of ludicrous regulation so they patch it together as best they can.
No, this is not about rich bankers- though they have always done their thing- this is about everyone, from Ignatious Reilly upward, having to comply with ever more intrusive regulation, and bypassing those regulations altogether because they are ignorant. As Hale says above, we will fairly quickly devolve into the kind of black marketeering that was common in the old Soviet- and if you don’t think Americans capable of this, look at the US black market in food that existed during WW2, as well as the ignorance of prohibition. And what did those markets spawn? Instead of the healthy economy that we have enjoyed for years, we will have crime based capitalism.
Unless someone has the balls to start horsewhipping people.
Shoot, shovel & shaddup.
Universally applicable.
Jim
Sunk New Dawn
Galveston, TX
Some folks have already figured out how to skirt the Rules and Regulations:
“We hear about the tough small-business regulations that have driven residents out of the state, at the rate of 2,000 to 3,000 a week. But from my unscientific observations these past weeks, it seems rather easy to open a small business in California without any oversight at all, or at least what I might call a “counter business.†I counted eleven mobile hot-kitchen trucks that simply park by the side of the road, spread about some plastic chairs, pull down a tarp canopy, and, presto, become mini-restaurants. There are no “facilities†such as toilets or washrooms. But I do frequently see lard trails on the isolated roads I bike on, where trucks apparently have simply opened their draining tanks and sped on, leaving a slick of cooking fats and oils. Crows and ground squirrels love them; they can be seen from a distance mysteriously occupied in the middle of the road.
At crossroads, peddlers in a counter-California economy sell almost anything. Here is what I noticed at an intersection on the west side last week: shovels, rakes, hoes, gas pumps, lawnmowers, edgers, blowers, jackets, gloves, and caps. The merchandise was all new. I doubt whether in high-tax California sales taxes or income taxes were paid on any of these stop-and-go transactions.
In two supermarkets 50 miles apart, I was the only one in line who did not pay with a social-service plastic card (gone are the days when “food stamps†were embarrassing bulky coupons). But I did not see any relationship between the use of the card and poverty as we once knew it: The electrical appurtenances owned by the user and the car into which the groceries were loaded were indistinguishable from those of the upper middle class.”
Read the rest:
http://www.ocregister.com/opinion/rural-280355-areas-various.html
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I agree. Very shortly — sooner than we are ready, America’s markets will become an Irish democracy. Regulations will be honored in the breach. And you will be a cottage industrialist black marketeer or you will starve. Tax revenues will plummet. Barter will become more common and taxes on the practices of a barter economy will not be collected. Government officials will take their lives in their hands to enforce laws with no respect from the populace, or they will travel in armed gangs.
Yes, the rise of the shadow economy:
http://nymag.com/news/features/tide-detergent-drugs-2013-1/
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-tide-black-market-2013-1
I am nowheres near NYC, but at some stores in my area the Tide bottles are damn near locked up.
Jenny
Related…”A Glimpse into the Coming Collapse”
http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/a-glimpse-into-the-coming-collapse
When manufacturing goes, everything else down the chain goes as well.
And yes, if you want to see the black market in action, just drive around California. This Soviet State has already driven industry either out of state or into the black market. It’s not too hard to find if you know where to look.
Its a lot of work now just getting reloading components, powder in particular, but in a few years, ammunition will be a medium of exchange on a par with the former glory of Bitcoin. The present shortages are a result of folks realizing that, and knowing that once built, ammo lasts 50-60 years without degradation, properly packed.
I work in automation as well, and Og is right there are so many changes coming and companies big and small are spending CAPEX to automate and standardize their processes/factories across their busiensses. But don’t forget about the better enterprise level software like SAP, that will kill off a lot of jobs that require human input as they automate decisions at the corporate level. Especially when they start to apply better software and models for decision making.
Like anything .gov it seems these tech hubs aren’t working out so well in the jobs creation department which was, after all, their whole goal in the first place, right?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/18/us-usa-obama-manufacturing-idUSBREA2H24H20140318