A lot of people are looking hopefully
At president Trump, in the wishes that they will get their old jobs back. Well, some may.
Many of those jobs, though, they’re gone. And they won’t be coming back.
In the last- oh, thirty years, I have driven a forklift. Driven a crane. Some big cranes. I have done cabinet work. I have packaged sheets. Toilet paper. Made locomotive engines. Carved hams. Boxed donuts. Forged parts. Machined parts. Used every kind of machine tool you can possibly imagine. Made tools that didn’t exist before I made them. Worked with the best and the worst industry had to offer. I’ve never been a “Master” at anything, I do something for a brief time so I understand what is needed, and then I move on to the next job. This has been my life for a very long time, do one job until I understand it well enough that I can make a robot do it, and then do another job. Literally hundreds of things I have had to turn my hand to, a dozen or more different things in a year. I’m not saying this to pat myself on the back, probably any smart person could do what I do, possibly better.
But nobody wants to. Most people want to go to work in the morning, come home at night. They don’t want to gallivant all over the place and have to learn a different discipline every month. And this is kind of the problem.
I worked with a guy called Amigo who was a carknocker. His job was to pack wool into railcar bearings, and keep them oiled. Inland steel had hundreds of them. he had a n old shop truck and it had an electric pump in it, and he would drive around and oil all the bearings. Took about a week, then he’d go back and start again. This is what they looked like.
When I was still working there Inland decided to replace them all with timken berarings. They were sealed, less maintenance, and lasted much longer, even with almost no maintenance. Amigo was heartbroken. What would he do? Where would he go? Well, he retired before it became an issue. It took them many years to make the change. But Amigo had a hobby, he liked to mess with old TV sets. He took a couple classes and he got good at fixing them. He died before solid state took the industry over completely.
He was upset about it, but he eventually overcame his fear and learned to do something new. And this is how life is, you learn to do something new. The idea that you can learn to do one thing and do it forever is an idea that has come, and gone. I know two MD’s that now run a golf course together. Doug Turnbull went from criminal justice to refinishing firearms.
if you think you are an old dog, and you can’t be taught a new trick, you are right. Those jobs that Trump will make, if he succeeds, are new jobs, many of them, and you will have to learn new things. If you were prepared to do that, I’d think you would have done so under Obama, but if you want that new gig, you will have to do so under Trump. Get off your heinie and do it.
Incidentally, to all those people who are enamoured of the notion that robots will do everything for us, let me assure you this: The amount of effort required to get ONE robot to do ONE thing reliably is LARGE. it isn’t robots that will take jobs, but automated kiosks at the mall, automated order takers at fast food joints. The key is, don’t have that job. The jobs to have are the ones where personalized service is appreciated and has an intrinsic value. Be thinking about that when you are planning your next move.
13 comments Og | Uncategorized
Every job I ever had, I’d never done before. Did them all well.
It can be done.
Looks like you took Heinlein’s advice (as spoken by Lazarus Long) to heart:
“A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.”
I have a stack of business cards about two inches high from contacts at businesses and factories that are long gone, consolidated, moved, closed. Those jobs are not coming back. At best Trump can slow or stop the drain.
Mom and Dads don’t want their kids to work in a factory. We all tell them to get an education, do not work with your back. Be better than your parents. The cost in pay and benefits to hire those people makes manufacturing uncompetitive for many consumer goods like textiles,small electronics,or low technology merchandise.
Worse, the guys who made those factories run, the master machinists, the tool and die makers, the old guys who found a solution are retired, or are working somewhere else now.
Americans want jobs, but unless we want to pay $40 for a T-shirt or $1000 for a washing machine those high-paying factory jobs are staying in low cost countries.
Even now manufacturers are looking to move out of China because cost there, especially wages, are rising.
I write the above as a guy whose very employment depends on a robust manufacturing sector.
I have a stack of business cards that is overflowing a cigar boxof those companies that are thriving. I am in them every day, and i can guarantee you the manufactoring sectorin the us is still quite robust. Its just moved away from regulations and unions.
What you wrote contains a wealth of good advice that only needs a bit of adaptation to work for any reader who is unafraid to take it. And I’m very happy you are taking your own advice ever more these days.
Im definitely on a tightrope.
Unions are there own worst enemy. Glad I no longer need to deal with them or their minions.
They also said computers were going to replace people, and as a programmer for over 30 years I can tell you they provide MORE work for MORE people, just different work than what there used to be. Instead of a room full of people with sliderules running calculations, they have a room full of people making the computers run the calculation. Oh, and producing reports that could NEVER have been produced in the age of sliderules. I worked on one last year that ground through several tens of millions of records of data, all to produce FOUR percentages. It runs every month, and doing it the old fashioned way would take years.
I’m fortunate that I’m VERY good at what I do, so companies will pay me rather well to do it. Until some shitbird comes along and asks “Hey, we’re paying Mark $X, we can hire someone right out of college for $X/2 to do the same job”. Good luck, that person right out of college doesn’t have the 30 years of experience I do.
Like the old story about the old man who’s called into a factory that’s not functioning, walks around for a half hour, and draws an X on the offending part, and sends a bill for $10,000. The accountants want him to itemize, so he sends back: 1) Drawing an X, $10.00. 2) Knowing WHERE to draw the X, $9,990.00.
Mark- Love your story! I mighta known that guy. Billable!-Heh!
Old timer but SHARP- He finally was retiring (from his full time business, running his personally refurbed lil hydroelectric plant, plus part time water testing contractor in region,plus a parttime consultant.
He had got cancer- so needed some time to deal (he was in his 70’s) Showed up at a civic meeting (where I met him) so glad to see him. We walk out and his beater Buick was gone. New 5series BMW sedan. That last couple week consult-heh- it paid really well!
My guy passed away this Spring. He is missed for sure…
Og- yah, job jumps- adapt and overcome(adapt or die is applicable too-LOL)Didn’t serve but sure love that motto.
And robot replacement:
I worked for Guardian Glass in mid ’90s for 3 years. BRAND new plant- manually packing sheets/plates (Lites is the industry term~) of glass into boxes/racks off of the unending conveyer line. Thinner glass- faster speed, thicker/heavier- slower speed.
3 swing shifts, 7 days each- 8-12hrs each day (yah never knew day to day if early in or over 4hrs)
And conveyer? for REAL- I love Lucy/ Laverne and Shirley daily episodes of ‘too much product’ coming at you and no where to put it- so it went on the floor or off edge into crash tubs or into the hole at end (crusher)… Boss wasn’t happy but all breakage was recycled on site-so thas cool. And breaking glass was GREAT therapy for all the unhappiness the psycho local management inflicted-it wasn’t even/fair by ANY means, but better than assault charges,LOL.
But I digress- yah- robotics- too bad you never visited???**
They had German computer company contracted to get the brand new robots with suction cups to pack.
The giant glass plates-12’x 14’etc-went to specialty robotic stackers- worked perfect, but the smaller bots- for glass sized 7ft sq – 2ftsq… Just wouldn’t go reliably. After about 1.5 yrs of 3? onsite programmers coding 8hrs everyyy day-they finally could let a couple workers on each shift be trained to babysit/toggle teh bots to run.(Fanuc pendant-was ok!) I was in that first group. It was also hard work too- and still MESSY.
Don’t go in cage with bot ON was ez rule. HELL no! Them things are scary fast at 100% and man- you DO know what happens when a 100% move to the zero location-occurs and there is already 100+ sheets of 5mm 72″x84″ glass on the rack. BOOM! tinkle tinkle. Ugh-more sweeping…
anyhoo- finally I ugly parted ways(fake issue-fired!)AND then several years further down the road- they gave up and scrapped em all. wrote off the equipment and the consult boondoggle-holy shit that had to been several mil?
and Poor folks still there, (we) had all been run like slaves, hanging on, hoping to get a labor break eventually- HA- NOPE!
Sad~ SIX years later- someone screams my old work nickname when I’m leaving a concert in downtown Chicago (4 hours away~) I’m like whatttt??? Guy runs up I ‘vaguely recognize’ from dif shift there. FIRST thing he says? Not HI! It’s “Oh gahd, you are SO SO lucky to have gotten out!!” he was still there-worse managers than ever-
So yah-robots slow to implement, many things they will never do. Takes MONEY to implement, and may be huge waste of money! Ah well.
BTW- The PLANT and process (glass) THAT was super neat:)
and yah-at 41, I went back to college. Geologist now:) Love it to death! YaY!
IOW-I relate to some of your history… Carry ON!
**oh yeah-if you’d been there-maybe they’d have flown?… Actually, the light sensors IIRC were big dead end, dust and vibration were detrimental…
~JO:)
Good points Og, and being able/willing to change and learn IS a lifesaver.
Dang Og, I spent 7 years working in the rail car brake systems industry and made visits to plenty of yards in 3 countries without seeing a wood bolster/steel bar railroad truck, ever! Thanks for that article and amen to being adaptable, that is what has got me to retirement age after traversing 3 completely different industries. Carry on amigo.
Thanks, Terra. We had a LOT of old cars in the mill, because as long as they still worked, well, why get rid of them?